Ep82 “Should NFL Teams Be More Aggressive on Fourth Down?” With David Romer

Show notes

A central tenant in economic theory is that in competitive markets, firms should be optimizing. If they aren’t competitive pressures drive them out of business. But what about the NFL? Two decades ago, UC Berkeley economist David Romer discovered that NFL coaches where not implementing the optimal strategy when deciding whether or not to go for it on fourth down. On this episode, he joins hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen to discuss the implications of his landmark study on fourth down strategy in the NFL. In this conversation, they discuss what the math reveals about going for it on fourth down. David also chats about why teams were initially slow to take up his findings, and how fourth down strategy has evolved in recent years with the uptick in data analytics staffers in the league. Find All Else Equal on the web: https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/allelse/ All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM . Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.